Good writers on SeekingAlpha.

Good writers are hard to come across. The ones with too many followers are trash and just following FADs. There are many that pump out articles because they make money per article (think of Chinese sweat shop.) Many don't even invest in the stocks they recommend! 

Two that I follow, after many hours of deep research:

Jolyon Loo

Carleton Hanson

These two give quality reports on companies they are long. They are fully invested in their companies. They have a near perfect track record, their reasoning and value investing principles is absolute. 

Comment who you know, we can add it to the list.

How to get free stock research from earnings calls.

Example:

$MEDS on NASDAQ

1. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4381486-trxade-group-inc-meds-ceo-suren-ajjarapu-on-q3-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript

2. Taglich Brothers- https://taglichbrothers.com/companyreports/trxadegroup/trxadegroup-11022020.pdf

Dawson James Securities- they took it off their website, but they have a bunch of free ones. https://dawsonjames.com/reports-landing/

Dougherty & Company- nothing there. but it's supposed to be free. 

Lake Street Capital Markets- don't give free research. 

Steps:

1. Locate quarterly earnings calls transcripts on Seeking Alpha free 

2. Identify call participants analysts. Their firms give free reports. 

I was stumbling by when I found this by accident. 

$ODT Odonate Therapeutics. Keep your eye on it.

Net cash: $114 MM

Market cap: $119 MM                Almost a net-net. 

ODT is a really weird stock. But it can be a net-net. Watch out! I am watching out! It's a biotech stock that stopped it's pipeline drug because FDA won't approve it, so the stock tanked! Literally (-80%). 

1. Why it's weird: A lot of insiders bought at the $15-17 range. *

Source 1:

I did the math for you, excluding BOX CAPITAL LLC, insiders (2) bought $50 million dollars worth of stock (Boxer bought $35 million). Mean price $16/share. 

Then all of a sudden the stonk tanks to $3. From $20. 

Why would insiders buy to lose money, I don't know. It is definitely not going back to $20. 

Apparently, "Odonate is discontinuing the development of tesetaxel and will wind down the operations of the Company." According the SEC filing 8k on March 25th 2021. ** "Odonate estimates that the Restructuring will be substantially complete by June 30, 2021 and that costs incurred in connection with the Restructuring will be approximately $14 million." Key word. $14 million restructuring cost. 

Apparently this is their only drug in their pipeline and people think it's going to go bankrupt. But little do they know their cash position.

2. Little do they know they have $150 million in cash...

Cash position: $157.3 MM + $2.6 MM Prepaid expenses = $160 MM cash position

Total liabilities they are obligated to pay: $31.74 million

Source 2: TIKR, you need an account, make a free account at the bottom, I gave you my referral code. I gain nothing. 

but don't forget restructuring cost is $14 MM. 

160-31.74-14 = $114 MM net cash position (after all liabilities.) 

But market cap is only $119.3 MM!!!!!

Ok it's not a net-net. It's almost a net-net. Watch out. 

**** I'm excluding the $7 MM in PP&E and $1.71 in other long term assets (I don't know what that is.) I don't know if it's worth fair value.

Their average cash burn rate is $30 million/ quarter, but since majority is of research and development, they are stopping that. So cash burn rate will be minimal? I only expect the $14 MM to be a cost. 

Negative EBITDA of -$30 MM a quarter, implying cash burn rate (depreciation is negligible, I look at the cash flow statement.)

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/odt/financials/balance-sheet/?period=quarterly

They just did an equity raise in Q3 2020 for $88 million.

3. Interesting call options chain: many more open call options than put options. 

Many call options. Show yahoo options chain. People expect stonk price to go up? 

Source 2: Yahoo finance options chain.

That's why it's so weird, insiders lost so much money, and now it's almost a net-net because people think it's going to go bankrupt. 

What to make of this? If market cap drops drastically below $114 million, this will be a good feast. I need a large margin of safety to make this work, because these guys might take a chunk of cash for themselves. 

Sources:

Source 1: https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ODT,ITOS 

**https://sec.report/Document/0001564590-21-015499/

***TIKR account: https://app.tikr.com/register?ref=9bsel3

Short squeeze + insider buying + 52 week low = $$$$

 Buy into the short squeeze. 

THIS IS NOT A NEW IDEA. HEDGE FUNDS HAVE BEEN DOING IT FOR DECADES. Look at Tilray, OSTK, GSX, GME, Blue apron holding. All short squeezes. Many more that I haven't heard of.

What's the idea? Market thinks it's so bad that's why everyone is shorting it. But insiders are buying? Because they know better and the stonk is undervalued. It's at a 52 week low and short interest is still so high. Shorts are going to have to buy back in, elevating stock price, at least temporarily. We play this by buying long dated call options just in case. Look for unusual options volume (call volume), it will be interesting to see if other people think the same (short squeeze.)

Remember key components:

-High short interest

-Insider buying (not one guy, but multiple people to solidify bullish position.)

-52 week low. It can't go lower, can it? Shorts have to buy back in, crowding exits. 

For those of you less inclined: https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=sh_insidertrans_pos,sh_short_o20,ta_highlow52w_b40h&ft=4

I will show some examples to concretize this idea so you really understand it/ believe it. Also for myself too. Follow my trades (if I make any.)

Remember, these are only quantitative facts, we need qualitative catalysts for this to really work. Like Ryan Cohen owning 10% or Michael Burry taking a position. We got to look for Form SC 13 G or D filings. 

This is extremely unrefined, many more metrics to look for like liquidity (low volume, wide bid-ask spreads), high insider ownership. Many more, I just can't remember. I will update it the more I do it. 

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. 

Buy depressed IPOs after a year (or two.)

There is a study that shows most IPOs draw down before going up. Let's find those depressed IPOs that have significant insider buying and significantly lower than their 52 week highs. So we can invest in them.

For those of you less inclined: https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ipodate_prev2yrs,sh_insidertrans_pos,ta_highlow52w_b40h&ft=4

This has brought me to three options:

GSKY

and PROG. 

And MPLN (SPAC beware). I like all three. 

They all have significant insider buying enough that it matters. I filtered it out. It's best. Usually means stonks go up. **Usually**, not always. Almost always. 

Don't know what these are? Read articles on SeekingAlpha for free. MPLN doesn't have any free articles. Read this instead: https://yetanothervalueblog.com/2020/12/multiplan-part-1-short-squeeze-potential-mpln.html. 

I am probably going to buy call options on those. MAYBE. This is not investment advice. I want to. 

Usually IPOs depress after their lock-up period expires because insiders (and private investors who owned the company before going public) start selling. Look for this https://www.marketbeat.com/ipos/lockup-expirations/. List of lock up expirations. 

If I forget anything, I will update it here. Put it in the comments. 

Investing in spinoffs-- profitable.

Example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73zjEN98FFc  my youtube channel

There is a lot more information than the little given here. I need to gather my thoughts. I have very specific information.

Look at Form 10-12B https://sec.report/Form/10-12B#more

Shows you all the recent spinoffs. Spinoffs outperform the market in general. Look for insider buying after the spinoff and high management ownership and same management running the business. That means they are comfortable owning the business. Usually in a spinoff there is indiscriminate selling by institutions because it doesn't meet their mandate to hold the stock (too little market cap, different industry, higher volatility, etc.. others.) So there is significant selling pressure in the beginning of the spinoff and not enough liquidity to capture it fast enough**. Therefore stock price is depressed temporarily. Capture it. It doesn't stay long.

What you want to look for is smaller cap companies and companies with lower trading volume and because small volume spikes itself will boost stock price. Illiquidity has its perks. Often times microcaps have a boost in stock price after the initial sell-off because illiquidity is more pronounced and when selling the bid-ask spread is horrible.

Some names that I used to own:

CNXC

VNT

AOUT

Best one is CNXC in my opinion. I am not holding any of these currently. I am 100% cash. This is not investment advice. 

See stockspinoffinvesting.com for more information. Free. 

Follow SC 13D filings to make money.

Find Form 13D: https://sec.report/Form/SC+13D

Many people know insider trading and follow that. Form 13D is something new, something peculiar and something that surely works. It makes sense. 

Whenever an activist investor acquires more than 5% of a company, he must report a Form SC 13D filing within 10 days. He must state his intent for his purchase of 5% of the company and if he's going to buy more. Key part. 

If a large investor is building a position we can front run him. Ta da! That's it. Buy stock or options whichever is applicable. I've seen this before that's why I'm saying. Not just theoretical. 

Main requirements/additives:

-High call options volume (look for specifically ITM and OTM if it's illiquid.)

-If liquidity is low (volume is low, bid-ask spreads are wide, usually there will be a spike in share price as the investor tries to acquire more shares.) 

Reasoning:

Usually the hedge fund/ investor will buy lots of call options to hedge against price movement so he can buy lots at the current stock price and/or stock option strike price. Look for ITM options with close expiry or in general high open interest in OTM call options if their is liquidity risk. If the bid-ask spreads are wide and any jump in volume can jerk the stonk price higher.

Happy Hunting! We need to create a screener for this. Will be amazing. 

Does P/B even matter?

Not to me, it doesn't!

P/B is liquidation value compared to market cap. 

If P/B > 1, you lose money. If P/B < 1, you gain money, considering you can sell assets at fair market value, which you can't. 

I buy a company for its future cash flows, not it's liquidation value. I am not going to liquidate the company, unless I do. Unless corporate raiding.

That's why tech stocks have high P/B, not much infrastructure/machinery, just high future cash flows. Much better than manufacturing companies. Better margins. 

Find SPACS under $10 on finviz. Stonk screener.

https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/19/a-sober-look-at-spacs/

Read this article as a precursor. Shows you how much of a scam it is. 

https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_shellcompanies&ft=4

If a SPAC doesn't acquire a company within two years, they return your $10 plus interest.

So what you got to look for is companies that are about to expire their two years and are trading under $10. Then you get free money when it expires.

What if the SPAC acquires a company and the share price tanks? Welp, good luck. 

Do it yourself if you're a big boy:

A company that never pays a dividend is a ponzi scheme.

It doesn't need to pay a dividend now. It doesn't need to pay a dividend tomorrow, but if it never pays a dividend until the day it dies, it is a Ponzi scheme. Let's use an example to solidify (real life example.)

Definition of a Ponzi scheme: Investor A makes money off investor B. Investor B makes money off investor C. Investor C is a bagholder. See image 1. 

Real life example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjOamcE0ahE&t=551s Ticker: MSN Emerson radio

You don't need to watch the video. I will explain everything right here. 

How do you make money from stocks? Either through capital appreciation or dividends. Let's ignore capital appreciation because it's just another investor paying you more for it (Ponzi scheme.) That means the only way to derive value from a company is through its dividends. Dividends is what you get from the company. The company gives you cash from its balance sheet. What happens if a company has a $1 billon in cash but never gives it away as dividends and never intends to? The value of the cash might as well be zero (even if it gets acquired, the parent company won't give you a dividend either. Got 'em!). How does this happen you may ask? Easy. Insiders own 60% and never issue a dividend, rather milk the company through salary (see listed video.) 

What about stock buyback? Isn't that the company giving back to its shareholders--- yes as long you are one of the guys selling your shares to the company. Otherwise no. If you keep holding your shares, it's  a waste. It's a Ponzi scheme. The only way you can make money is if you sell it another fool at a higher price. 

You may not understand this concept thoroughly because I did not explain it right. But you better know it, it is essential. Many people don't know and they fight with me on reddit. 

That means the money they got from their IPO is essentially free money they never have to repay (good deal! Where do I get that?)

That's why when I see a cyclical company that never pays a dividend, I cringe. Ponzi scheme *100.

Appendices:

Image 1. Sorry bud. You're the bagholder.